ON THE POSSIBILITY TO QUANTITATIVELY ASSESS THE IMPACTS OF CATASTROPHIC FACTORS ON WOODLANDS

Abstract

1 Saint-Petersburg State Forest Technical University and 2 Saint-Petereburg State University, Saint Petersburg, Russia Approaches to the development of a system for assessing quantitatively the impacts of catastrophic factors on sylvan ecosystems are considered. The possibility is outlined that the general concepts of the catastrophe theory may be used in woodland management. It is suggested that wood pathology monitoring (WPM) data may be used to estimate and forecast the critical levels of the impacts of catastrophic factors. Based in the official data of monitoring the conditions of woodlands in Leningrad Oblast and on the results of original studies, the possibility to assess qualitatively the main catastrophic factors is investigated. The conclusion is that, based on WPM data, it is possible, in principle, to develop models providing for assessing the critical levels; however, additional studied that are required for this include the generalization, analysis and verification of available data and, for some factors, targeted field studies. It is suggested that for fulfilling these tasks, first of all, in reference regions (Leningrad Oblast, Tatar Republic, and Krasnoyarsk Region), the following is warranted: (1) to develop, based on the available information, such as WPM data, research publications and accounts, woodland investigation reports, and expert assessments, a database of stress impacts and the responses of sylvan ecosystems to them; (2) to develop a network of test areas for the quantitative assessments of key parameters of sylvan ecosystems; (3) to calculate the reference threshold values of stress factors; and (4) to devise a system for wood management interventions required in the cases of emerging catastrophic events and to assess its effectiveness.