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ЛЕСНЫЕ ПОЖАРЫ И ИХ УГЛЕРОДНЫЙ СЛЕД В СВЯЗИ С ИЗМЕНЕНИЕМ КЛИМАТА (ОБЗОР ЗАРУБЕЖНОЙ ЛИТЕРАТУРЫ)
Abstract
Чтобы ограничить повышение средней глобальной температуры поверхности земли на 1,5 °C по сравнению с доиндустриальным уровнем, выбросы углекислого газа должны достичь чистого нуля к середине текущего столетия. Тем не менее, глобальные ежегодные выбросы CO2 в результате лесных пожаров составляют примерно пятую часть их глобальных выбросов от использования ископаемого топлива. Дистанционный анализ площадей, пройденных природными пожарами за последние 20 лет, показал наличие как отрицательных, так и положительных тенденций, что связано с получением этих оценок датчиками с разным пространственным разрешением. На мировом уровне по разным оценкам наблюдалось как снижение, так и повышение уровня выбросов CO2 при природных пожарах. В бореальной части Северной Америки выбросы СО2 от пожаров увеличиваются и прогнозируется их повышение вплоть до 2050 года, однако увеличение финансирования на борьбу с пожарами, является экономически эффективной стратегией их ограничения. В Китае объем выбросов CO2 от природных пожаров в последние десятилетия снижался за счет осуществления специальной политики по предотвращению лесных пожаров и эффективных мер борьбы с ними. В России в последние годы лесные пожары стали известны во всем мире как катастрофические. Выполненные оценки Службой мониторинга атмосферы (Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service) показали, что с 2011 по 2020 годы российские леса ежегодно выбрасывали в атмосферу 659 млн т CO2, 55 % которых не отражены в официальных отчетах. С 2004 по 2021 годы пожары в резервной зоне, леса которой официально не охраняются, увеличили годичные выбросы СО2 с 25 до 92 млн т. Для решения проблемы предупреждения и тушения катастрофических лесных пожаров требуется, прежде всего, восстановление государственной лесной охраны, упраздненной Лесным кодексом 2006 года. В целом, в зависимости от применяемых методов, оценки выбросов СО2 от пожаров за последние десятилетия выявили как положительные, так и отрицательные тенденции, а прогнозы на ближайшие десятилетия однозначно показывают увеличение выбросов СО2 от природных пожаров, что с учетом глобального потепления означает возможность развития положительной обратной связи двух тенденций.
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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.24855/biosfera.v18i2.1046
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